As per The Alpha Momentum Strategy:
- The intermediate trend of the S&P 500 is down
- The long term trend of the S&P 500 is up
When the system determines that the trend of the stock market is down on one time frame (but not both), like right now, we take a defensive stance and move half of the portfolio to cash. We move to cash in order to protect capital and avoid a deep and prolonged drawdown.
What is the risk in moving such a significant portion of the portfolio to cash? The risk is that the market quickly regains strength and continues higher without us. While our testing shows that that can certainly happen (and often does), our testing shows us that by taking the risk of missing out on some upside performance, we are increasing the likelihood that we avoid drawdowns of 30%+ like those seen in the early 2000s and during the Great Financial Crisis. This is a risk that we want to take.
We will be executing trades such that the model portfolio reflects the following composition as of close of trade tomorrow, April 16th, 2018.